We are two-thirds through the 2025 NRL season, with just nine rounds remaining as the race for finals spots heats up.

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Entering Round 19, only six points separate the fifth-placed Broncos (22pts) and 15th-placed Parramatta Eels (16pts).

The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership which, for now, appears to be a race between three.

Look away if you are a Titans or Rabbitohs fan, as according to the Lab, your season is all but done, although you probably knew that already.

Raiders and Storm fans can already rejoice, with your teams rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Bulldogs and Warriors also more or less guaranteed to be playing finals.

Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.

1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (30 points, +108)

Predicted finish: 2nd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 95.3%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 20.4%

Remaining games: Bye, Eels (H), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)

Analysis: Who predicted the Green Machine topping the table with eight rounds to go? Surely no even many ironed-on Raiders fan would have. Coach Ricky Stuart hasn’t been shy to call out those he feels disrespected his team before a ball was kicked and it’s hard to blame him. Canberra were a popular wooden spoon pick and the bookies agreed, with the Raiders rated the outsider before Round 1. None of that matters now though. This Raiders team is a bona fide premiership threat. Anchored by arguably the game’s best forward pack, the Raiders possess threats and speed all over the park. They will be a tough opponent for any team come finals time. While they have two byes in hand and lead the Storm and Bulldogs by two points, they are rated a 20.4% chance of winning the minor premiership while Melbourne are 53%. Regarding their run home, it’s pretty soft. Three of their remaining seven games are against teams currently sitting in the bottom five.

2. MELBOURNE STORM (28 points, +202)

Predicted finish: 1st

Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%

Chance of finishing top four: 97.4%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 53%

Remaining games: Knights (A), Sea Eagles (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: After failing at the final hurdle last year, the Storm are well placed to go one better in 2025. There was some indifferent form during the middle part of the year, but they are humming at the moment, having won five straight games. Despite sitting second behind the Raiders on the ladder entering Round 19, the Storm are rated a league-high 53% chance of adding another minor premiership to a stacked trophy case. They have a pretty tough run home. Due to a scheduling quirk, the Storm play four Thursday night games in a row, with three of those formidable opponents (Roosters, Broncos, Panthers). On the back of those, they have to tackle the Bulldogs and then end with the Roosters and Broncos again. On the injury front, the Storm are travelling pretty well. Barring winger Will Warbrick (Round 22), they have named a mostly full strength team for this weekend’s clash against Newcastle.

3. CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (28 points, +92)

Predicted finish: 3rd

Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 90.7%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 20.1%

Remaining games: Cowboys (A), Dragons (H), Sea Eagles (H), Tigers (A), Warriors (H), Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)

Analysis: From Round 4 to Round 16, the Bulldogs sat atop the ladder and were heading towards a minor premiership, but after losing two straight games, Cameron Ciraldo’s men have dropped back to third. With a six point buffer on the fifth-placed Broncos, they’re rated a 90.7% chance of holding onto a top four spot before the finals, but it’s safe to say that with the way the Broncos and the sixth-placed Panthers are travelling at the moment, that isn’t a surety.

What is in the Bulldogs favour is their upcoming draw. While the last month will be tricky, they can consolidate their top four position in the next few weeks with winnable games against the Cowboys, Dragons and Tigers. The Dogs are also quite healthy with only Marcelo Montoya sidelined for several weeks.

4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (26 points, +11)

Predicted finish: 4th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 98.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 77%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 6.2%

Remaining games: Tigers (H), Knights (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)

Analysis: You have to feel for the Warriors fans. Their team was red hot and a genuine premiership threat until the shattering season-ending injuries of halfback Luke Metcalf and forward Mitch Barnett. It’s too harsh to say that the dual injury blow has derailed their season though as they still sit relatively comfortably in the top four. In addition to that, they have one of the easiest remaining draws. During their run home, they face the Titans twice as well as bottom five teams the Eels, Tigers and Knights. You’d have to think that even though a home final is a strong possibility, it’s hard to see them having the class to knock off the top teams at the business end of the season without Metcalf and Barnett.

5. BRISBANE BRONCOS (22 points, +68)

Predicted finish: 6th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 73.8%

Chance of finishing top four: 8.8%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%

Remaining games: Titans (A), Bye, Eels (H), Rabbitohs (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)

Analysis: Their season is back on track after four straight wins. There’s every chance they extend that streak to seven given they’ve got the Titans, Eels and Rabbitohs on the docket next with a bye in between. Michael Maguire’s men are getting fitter as well. Ben Hunt returns this weekend meaning Corey Jensen and Cory Paix are the only two under injury clouds. So, the Broncos are well placed to make another grand final run. They sit four points behind the Warriors, who are on shaky ground at the moment given a couple of season ending injuries. If the Broncos do win their next three as they’re expected to, it’s likely they will be in the top four at the end of Round 22.

6. PENRITH PANTHERS (21 points, +3)

Predicted finish: 5th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 78%

Chance of finishing top four: 12.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.3%

Remaining games: Eels (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)

Analysis: Here come the premiers! After a slow, slow start to the season, where they spent multiple weeks parked to the bottom of the ladder, Penrith have collected a maximum 12 competition points from the last six rounds (four wins, two byes). They now sit sixth and will almost certainly finish in the top eight. Is a top four finish at all possible though? According to the Fox Sports Lab, they are rated a 1 in 8 chance of making up the required ground.

Nothing is impossible with the Panthers, so inside the four walls of Penrith HQ, there would be quiet confidence they can earn a second chance in the finals. Over the next four rounds, the Panthers play the bottom four teams on the ladder. Win all four of those, and there’s a good chance they are just one point out of the top four.

7. DOLPHINS (20 points, +162)

Predicted finish: 7th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 71.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 7.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Sharks (A), Cowboys (H), Bye, Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)

Analysis: Despite the lack of finals experience, the Dolphins strike us as one of those teams that rivals won’t want to come up against in September. It was a grim start to the season for Kristian Woolf’s men, losing four straight. Since, they’ve gone 8-4, showing off a potent attack especially of late. The Dolphins have put 50 on their opponents in three of their last four games. This is despite a horror casualty ward. Six starters have been ruled out for the season. They are in a clump of teams on 20 points, and it’s likely those four teams will fight for two top eight spots. In their favour is that they own one of the best points differentials in the league (+162). A tricky away clash against a desperate Sharks side awaits to kick off Round 19, which shapes up as a massive clash in the context of the battle for the top eight.

8. MANLY SEA EAGLES (20 points, +58)

Predicted finish: 10th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 40.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bye, Storm (A), Bulldogs (A), Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: A tough team to figure out are the Sea Eagles, as there is a massive gulf between their best and worst footy. There’s no doubt that if find some consistency over the final couple of months, Manly are a red-hot chance of making the eight, however, they’ll have their work cut out for them. While a bye this weekend means a handy two points, they then face a murderer’s row of opponents. Three of Manly’s next four games are against the top three sides on the ladder (Storm, Bulldogs, Raiders).

9. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (20 points, +14)

Predicted finish: 9th

Chance of finishing in top eight: 49.4%

Chance of finishing top four: 4.1%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dragons (A), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Dolphins (A). Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)

Analysis: The Roosters started the season poorly, but have been on a steady incline ever since and are a realistic chance of making a run at the title if they can squeak into the finals. James Tedesco has returned to his best this year without the burden of rep footy and young halves Hugo Savala and Sandon Smith have filled in for the injured Sam Walker with aplomb. Injuries to back-rowers Nat Butcher and Siua Wong have thrown a spanner in the works for their finals chances, but a good run through the Origin period should hold them in good stead when their five rep stars return to the team full-time. The Roosters have no more byes and some tough games on he run home, but if they can squeak into the finals, they will be a team no one wants to face at full strength, especially with Walker back in the No.7 jersey.

10. CRONULLA SHARKS (20 points, -4)

Predicted finish: 8th

Chance of finishing top eight: 58.6%

Chance of finishing top four: 4.2%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Dolphins (H), Roosters (H), Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)

Analysis: The Sharks were cruising early in the year and looked a top four team after beating the Storm, but that victory triggered a stunning form slump that has them fighting for a finals berth. Kade Dykes and Liam Ison are out for the year with season ending injuries, while Mawene Hiroti, KL Iro and Thomas Hazelton are also sidelined. The Sharks have been plagued by inconsistency all season and their halves combination of Nicho Hynes and Braidon Trindall haven’t quite clicked as a pair. Addin Fonua-Blake has been an excellent signing, but hasn’t quite proved the missing piece in their premiership puzzle as predicted. The Sharks have a reasonable draw on the run home, but even if they make the finals the jury is out if they can make some noise when they get there.

11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18 points, -49)

Predicted finish: 11th

Chance of finishing top eight: 17.5%

Chance of finishing top four: 0.6%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Roosters (H), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Raiders (H), Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)

Analysis: The Dragons have been punching above their weight alls season given their horror injury toll, especially in the forwards, with Ryan Couchman and Dylan Egan out for the season, Francis Molo moving to the Dolphins and Hame Sele, Raymond Faitala-Mariner and Toby Couchman all currently sidelined. All the talk all season has centred around Kyle Flanagan and whether he is the answer at halfback, but in fairness he has been one of their more consistent players. Off-season recruit Lachlan Ilias was discarded early and has not been seen since. Valentine Holmes has been a good signing for the club but they look a number of class players short of competing for a finals spot let alone doing anything if they got to September.

12. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (17 points, -140)

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing top eight: 5.0%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Bulldogs (H), Dolphins (A), Dragons (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye

Analysis: The Cowboys looked like a top eight team early in the season, but the Origin period saw five players called up for the Maroons and Blues combined and the team has struggled with their depth through this period to slip out of the top eight. Injuries haven’t helped with Heilum Luki and Tom Chester out for the year and Jason Taumalolo, Sam McIntyre and Semi Valemei missing large chinks of the year. Tom Dearden has blossomed into a halfback at club and state level, while Jaxon Purdue has shown he is the future of the club, but the Cowboys’ Achilles heel in defence has robbed them of a realistic chance of making the finals.

13. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16 points, -67)

Predicted finish: 15th

Chance of finishing top eight: 1.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Storm (H), Warriors (H), Raiders (A), bye, Panthers (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)

Analysis: The Knights missed the jump the year and have been playing catch-up ever since after their horror attack plagued the team for most of the season. The Knights have long been accused of being a one-man team and Kalyn Ponga’s form slump this season has only magnified the deficiencies in their squad. Fletcher Sharpe has been their best player all year, but a horror spleen injury has all but ended his season and Ponga has also been ruled out for the year. Adam Elliott has also missed a large chunk of the season. The Knights can’t seem to settle on a halves pairing and Jack Cogger and Jackson Hastings have found themselves in and out of the team. But the Knights don’t have the pack to set a platform up front and they won’t get any better when Leo Thompson leaves at the end of the season. Hopefully Dylan Brown can be the club’s savour next year, but one player alone can’t fix the mess at the Knights with Adam O’Brien fighting for his job.

14. WESTS TIGERS (16 points, -82)

Predicted finish: 14th

Chance of finishing top eight: 1.7%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Warriors (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), bye, Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)

Analysis: Hopes were high for the Tigers at the start of the season after they won five of their first nine games to sit inside the top eight. However, the Lachlan Galvin saga triggered a six-game losing streak and the Tigers are now fighting to avoid a fourth straight wooden spoon. Galvin was released to join the Bulldogs and Tallyn Da Silva to the Eels meaning their two best young players are gone and there are reports Jahream Bula and potentially skipper Jarome Luai could join the exodus in the coming years. The Tigers have a tough run home, so they will do well to finish out of the bottom four which would be a pass mark given where they have come from, but breaking the longest finals drought in the NRL looks a long way off still.

15. PARRAMATTA EELS (16 points, -103)

Predicted finish: 13th

Chance of finishing top eight: 3.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Panthers (H), Raiders (A), Broncos (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)

Analysis: The Eels were always looking at a rebuild under Jason Ryles in 2025, but losing their halfback Mitchell Moses for most of the season has made any chance at squeaking into the finals all but impossible. Kelma Tuilagi, Will Penisini, Ryley Smith and Luca Moretti are also sidelined and with a tough draw to finish the season, staying out of the bottom two will be a win for the club. Isaiah Iongi has been a rare bright spot this season and looks to be a star of the future, but Dylan Brown’s departure to the Knights means they will be looking for a new No.6.

16. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (14 points, -129)

Predicted finish: 16th

Chance of finishing top eight: 0.1%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: bye, Panthers (A), Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)

Analysis: Hopes were high for Souths amid the return of Wayne Bennett for a second stint at the club, but his fairytale return has turned into a nightmare on the back of a horror casualty ward. Cameron Murray was ruled out for the season before a ball was kicked, while Latrell Mitchell suffered an injury on the eve of the season and Souths have been playing catch up ever since. Injuries to Cody Walker, Jayden Sullivan, Euan Aitken, Brandon Smith and Mikaele Ravalawa are all currently out and Souths are fighting to avoid the wooden spoon, which would be a first for Bennett in his illustrious career. Jye Gray has been a rare bright spot for the team, but Bennett needs to find a way to get him in the team every week because the Rabbitohs lack energy and effort across the park.

17. GOLD COAST TITANS (14 points, -144)

Predicted finish: 17th

Chance of finishing top eight: 0.3%

Chance of finishing top four: 0%

Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%

Remaining games: Broncos (H), Tigers (A), Warriors (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)

Analysis: There were high hopes for the Titans at the start of the season, but they are favourites for the wooden spoon and coach Des Hasler has one foot out the door after a horror tenure at the club. David Fifita was dropped for poor form, injured and shopped to rivals in a saga that has summed up their horror year. Carter Gordon, Harley Smith-Shields and Brock Gray are out for the year, while star fullback Keano Kini and Kieran Foran have missed most of the year. Jayden Campbell showed promise at halfback, but is too often injured and the Titans need to land a marquee half to climb out of the NRL cellar, but it won’t be this year amid a tough run home.